NEW YORK, Nov 10, CMC – The US based international credit rating agency, S&P Global Ratings, has upgraded Suriname’s credit rating from CCC+ to B-, with a stable outlook.
It said that the improvement is primarily due to high gold prices, rising government revenues, and expected economic growth from offshore oil production starting in 2028.
But S&P is also warning that weak government institutions, poor debt management, and the lack of functioning budgetary rules remain major risks to the country’s financial stability.
S&P has raised the long-term rating for debt in both foreign and local currencies from CCC+ to B-, while the short-term rating is rising from C to B. The outlook remains stable.
S&P acknowledges that with the new rating, Suriname’s financial position is improving and that the Dutch-speaking Caribbean Community (CARICOM) country is considered better able to meet its debt obligations.
However, the B- rating remains within the speculative category. This means that the creditworthiness remains vulnerable to economic setbacks and policy errors.
According to S&P, high international gold prices and the recovery of gold production are making a significant contribution to the improvement of public finances. It said that production at the largest gold mine increased by 44 per cent year-on-year in the first half ofthis year.
The value of gold exports doubled during the same period.
The higher revenues reduce the government’s financing needs with S&P noting the debt restructuring carried out at the end of 2025 and improvements at the State Debt Bureau also support the creditworthiness. T
It said it expects the Surinamese economy to grow by an average of 4.1 per cent per year in 2026 and 2027 and that investments in the offshore oil sector, ports, real estate, and infrastructure would make a significant contribution to towards that goal.
But the country’s biggest economic change is yet to come with S&P expecting oil production from the GranMorgu offshore field to begin in mid-2028. The project is being developed by TotalEnergies, APA Corporation, and Staatsolie.
Due to the start and further expansion of oil production, the credit rating agency forecasts exceptionally strong economic growth. Growth of 28.2 percent is projected for 2028, and even 43.4 per cent for 2029. According to the forecasts, gross domestic product per capita could rise from approximately US$7,271 in 2025 to US$20,300 in 2029, a near threefold increase.
S&P expects the ratio between government debt and the size of the economy to improve significantly in the coming years. It said gross government debt amounted to approximately 104.7 per cent of gross domestic product in 2025. That ratio could fall to 86.6 percent in 2026, 54.3 percent in 2028, and 33.8 percent in 2029.
Net government debt could also decrease significantly according to estimates, from 89.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 25 per cent in 2029. The expected decline is partly due to the strong economic growth driven by oil production.
However, despite the more favorable outlook, the debt position remains vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations with S&P pointing out that 84 per cent of government debt is denominated in foreign currency.
A weakening of the Surinamese dollar could therefore increase the debt burden.
The S&P report has also commented on the operations of the government of President Jennifer Geerlings-Simons, assessing institutional capacity and the ability to implement policy as weak.
It make reference to past payment problems and debt restructurings, including selective default in 2020 and payment arrears following the debt swap of 2023. According to S&P, these experiences demonstrate that payment discipline and debt management are still insufficiently developed.
It said that coperation between the State Debt Bureau, the Ministry of Finance, and the Central Bank of Suriname also needs to be improved. In addition, S&P notes that key statutory budgetary rules are not yet operational. Suriname adopted legislation in 2024 for the management of public finances and the Savings and Stabilization Fund, but the rules intended to limit debt development and the growth of government spending are not yet being applied.
According to S&P, the government ants these rules to be fully operational before the major oil revenues arrive, adding that future oil wealth represents not only an economic opportunity but also a major governance challenge.
It said that the government must prevent the additional revenue from leading to irresponsible spending or new debt. Suriname must also build up sufficient financial buffers to absorb future declines in oil and gold prices.
S&P said it expects oil exports to significantly improve the foreign balance of payments starting in 2028 and that after years of deficits, the current account could reach a surplus in 2029. However, dependence on raw materials remains high and as a result, the economy will remain sensitive to international price fluctuations and changes in the investment climate.
The US-based credit rating agency said that it expects inflation to decline gradually but remain relatively high for the time being. Inflation of 10 per cent is projected for 2026, followed by eight per cent in 2027, declining further to 7.5 per cent in 2028, and seven per cent percent in 2029.
S&P said that the stable outlook means that it expects creditworthiness to remain at its current level over the next 12 to 18 months months and that a further upgrade is possible if Suriname succeeds in responsibly managing future oil revenues and sustainably improving debt management.
CMC/ls/ir/2026