BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, Sept 29, CMC -The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Monday said persistent warmth around and north of the Caribbean, and slackened winds imply recurrent excessive humid heat, potentially culminating in heatwaves from Dominica southwards where the Caribbean heat season peaks during the months of September and October.
In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication, CariCOF sad that the forecast El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions and near-average sea surface temperatures in the Tropical North Atlantic, will also imply that rainfall intensity and shower frequency should peak, resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.
There will also be increasing Atlantic Hurricane Season activity, progressively slowing down from October onwards and that the Guianas are in their long dry season through mid- to late-November, steadily increasing wildfire potential but decreasing flood potential there.
ENSO is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
CariCOF says that the Caribbean transitions out of the hurricane, wet, and heat seasons into the early dry and cool seasons in December, while northern and eastern parts Guianas transition from the hot, dry season into the secondary wet season.
CMC/2025