KINGSTON, Jamaica, May 27, CMC – The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is projecting a gradual recovery of the economy for the next two financial years with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to be within the range of one to three per cent.
BOJ Governor, Richard Byles, told the Quarterly Monetary Policy press conference that real GDP is also projected to grow at an average of one to two per cent over the medium term.
He told reporters that Jamaica’s Gross International Reserves also remain robust, standing at US$6.5 billion as of May 19, 2026, representing about 139.6 per cent of the sum considered adequate.
Byles said that this strong level of reserves provides an important buffer against external shocks.
“Going forward, Jamaica’s foreign reserve levels are expected to remain adequate over the medium term and will support the orderly functioning of the foreign exchange market, helping to limit volatility and thereby containing imported inflation,” Byles said, emphasising that the domestic financial system remains sound with adequate capital and liquidity.
Byles said that despite the temporary fall-off in tourism earnings, so far, the foreign exchange market has remained relatively stable.
“On the 19th of May 2026, the exchange rate had appreciated on a year-over-year basis by 0.5 per cent, compared with a depreciation of 1.7 per cent over a year earlier,” he adding that this stability occurred in the context of the BOJ’s continued actions to reduce volatility in the foreign exchange market, as part of its strategy to lower inflation expectations and contain inflation within the target range.
He said the BOJ sold US$1.3 billion via its B-FXITT facility over the 12 months ending in April this year, US$200 million more than the US$1.1 billion sold over the previous 12 months.
“Notwithstanding these sales, however, the bank purchased US$906.4 million more than it sold in the 12 months to April 2026,” the Governor said, stressing that the recent geopolitical tensions have introduced significant uncertainty and challenges to the economic outlook.
“The negative impact of the conflict on the country’s external accounts is projected to be significant, with the current account balance expected to deteriorate over the near term,” Byles said.
He said this deterioration will be largely underpinned by higher imported fuel prices, increased importation to facilitate the economy’s infrastructure rebuild post-Hurricane Melissa and the adverse impact of Hurricane Melissa on the tourism industry.
“In this context, the bank anticipates that the current account balance will fall within a range of a deficit of 0.5 per cent of GDP to a surplus of 0.5 per cent for the financial year 2025/26, compared with a surplus of three per cent of GDP recorded in 2024/25,” Byles stated.
Meanwhile, the BOJ said it will launch its 65th anniversary celebrations on Sunday.
“We have taken a smart integration approach to the celebrations. What that means is we are weaving the celebrations into already existing activations. We will be starting this Sunday with our ecumenical service, and that paves the way for the week of recognition for our employees,” said the head of Communications, Sheena Woodburn Francis.
ing at our staff, we’re looking at communities and every Jamaican we serve,” she stated.
The anniversary is being held under the theme ‘Honouring Our Past. Safeguarding Our Future’.
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